http://www.sundayherald.com/46866
Emergency warning as global flu epidemic fears grow
Planning advice warns of disastrous effects
By Neil Mackay, Investigations Editor
UK emergency services have been put on alert as the World Health Organisation
(WHO) warns that a potentially deadly from of bird flu that affects humans
could spark a global epidemic this winter.
An emergency planning doc ument spelling out the disastrous likely consequences
of such an epidemic has already been distributed to government agencies.
Although only relatively few human cases of the flu strain – known as H5N1
– have been reported, the WHO believes that if it took hold it could spread
dangerously quickly.
Dr Jim McMenamin, consultant epidemiologist with the NHS’s Health Protection
Scotland in charge of the flu surveillance system in this country, told
the Sunday Herald that it is ‘‘a question of when rather than if we get
an influ enza pandemic.”
He added: “The globalisation of culture has lead to the globalisation of
disease. International air travel means that infection can be just a few
hours away. All it takes is just one person to serve as a seed.”
The emergency planning document reveals that Britain is desperately unprepared
for such an epidemic. At present there are no drugs to protect humans from
H5N1, and it is expected to take at least six months to make a vaccine.
In human cases reported so far, the death rate has been chillingly high.
In Thailand 17 people were infected, of whom 12 died. In Vietnam, 27 caught
the disease and only seven lived.
A Pandemic
Influenza Plan has been drawn up and circulated to all health boards and
NHS trusts under the auspices of the Cabinet Office’s Civil Contingencies
Group on Pandemic Planning.
It states: “concerns about pandemic influenza are at an all-time high”,
and suggests that “a minimum of 25% of the population will become ill” and
“10% to 35% of the workforce may be absent from work.”
One section reads: “Mortality is likely to be high – estimated at 1% of
the total population.” The global death toll of the pandemic could be between
50 and 100 million.
The UK government believes high levels of death and illness could lead
to public disorder. Quarantine, travel res trictions and the issuing of
face masks are all being considered as protective measures.
A large number of school children could be affected, with working parents
having to take time off to care for them. Schools could be shut down during
the outbreak. Every element of industry and services could be severely affected.
Under the heading “Societal Disruption” the document says the government
“needs to consider maintenance of essential services such as … utilities
[and] communication; management of mass casualties; maintenance of public
order; the role of police and armed forces”.
A Scottish Executive health spokesman said: “We are well aware of the potential
risk of a flu pandemic, and we have been working closely for some time with
the rest of the UK on ways in which we can minimise risk and control any
outbreak.”
26 December 2004
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